CBRE's midyear review systematically assesses U.S. real estate performance in the first half of 2026 and the outlook for the second half, covering supply and demand, rents and investment across offices, industrial and logistics, retail and residential. It is a key reference for institutions judging where the U.S. property cycle stands. The interplay of home prices, interest rates and inventory remains the main thread to watch in the market ahead.
CBRE's analysis discusses the key variables shaping commercial real estate at the midpoint of 2026, including the interest-rate environment, shifts in tenant demand and capital flows, helping readers quickly grasp the main trends and uncertainties for U.S. commercial property in the second half. For practitioners, these regional and policy signals are worth adding to a monthly tracking list. The discussion ties these variables together into a single picture of where the market stands at midyear, and where the risks lie for the months ahead.
A survey finds that 82% of Australians believe owning their own home is now out of reach. Worsening housing affordability remains a focal social issue in Australia, and the results reflect widespread anxiety among ordinary households over high prices, as well as a growing generational divide. The interplay of home prices, interest rates and inventory remains the main thread to watch in the housing market ahead.
Realtor.com's economics team reviews the October jobs report: surging nonfarm payrolls and a hiring rebound mean the hawks at the Federal Reserve can breathe easier. The analysis discusses what the employment data means for judging the path of interest rates. For real estate practitioners, such regional and policy signals are worth adding to a monthly tracking list. A strong labor market also supports housing demand directly, as steady income growth underpins buyers' ability to take on a mortgage.
The U.S. economy added 165,000 jobs in October, well above economists' expectations, while the unemployment rate edged down. Realtor.com notes that the strong jobs data strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates, which would also feed through to the housing market via mortgage rates, making borrowing costs a key channel to watch for homebuyers and sellers alike.
Calculated Risk takes an early look at data from selected local U.S. housing markets in October, covering inventory, transactions and price trends. Local leading indicators are often used to anticipate the direction of the national housing market. The interplay of home prices, interest rates and inventory remains the main thread to watch in the housing market ahead. Because local markets move first, their October readings offer the earliest clues about whether the national picture is stabilizing or still softening.
Realtor.com's economics research shows U.S. mortgage rates have fallen for a third consecutive week. Lower rates directly stimulate homebuying demand and refinancing activity, making them an important leading indicator of how far the housing market is recovering. The interplay of home prices, interest rates and inventory remains the main thread to watch in the housing market ahead. Three straight weeks of declines give buyers a clearer window to act, and refinancing homeowners a reason to revisit their existing loans.
In the week ending November 5, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 7.18%, a third straight weekly decline, against the backdrop of Democrats regaining control of Congress in the midterm elections. Rate movements directly affect homebuying demand, making them one of the most sensitive leading indicators for the housing market, and a key variable for buyers weighing when to lock in a loan.
Realtor.com reports that a record 10% of first-time buyers paid all cash between 2025 and 2026, driven by an unprecedented intergenerational transfer of wealth. In a high-rate environment, family support is becoming an important way for young buyers to sidestep mortgage costs, and the trend is worth watching closely as affordability pressures persist for younger households. Cash purchases also reduce these buyers' exposure to rate swings, giving them an edge in competitive markets.
Realtor.com's economics research team publishes its weekly housing trends update, covering inventory changes, listing activity, prices and buyer-seller dynamics for the week ending October 31. High-frequency weekly data is the most timely set of indicators for judging whether the U.S. housing market is running hot or cold, and the week-to-week shifts in listings and pending sales often signal turning points before monthly reports do.
Calculated Risk summarizes the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey: mortgage applications fell in the latest week, down 19% year over year, while single-family inventory has returned to 2019 levels. Weak application volumes alongside normalizing inventory suggest high rates are still suppressing willingness to transact, even as more homes come onto the market and give buyers greater choice heading into the winter season.
Realtor.com's economics research shows surging mortgage rates brought both buyers and sellers to a halt in October: pending sales fell 17% year over year, making it one of the weakest Octobers on record. The monthly trends report brings inventory, prices and contract data together, offering a comprehensive window on the U.S. housing market's turn. When both sides of the market pause at once, listings and contract signings fall together, and the turn in prices that follows is usually slower to arrive.
Calculated Risk's monthly review of rents and vacancy rates argues that asking rents have likely bottomed. Rent trends matter both for tenants' actual housing costs and as a leading indicator for the housing component of inflation, and the dataset the author has tracked for years is widely cited in the industry, making the turn in rents a signal worth watching for both renters and policymakers.
Calculated Risk summarizes the Freddie Mac House Price Index: home prices rose in September, up 1.9% year over year, but some cities have fallen sharply from their peaks, including Punta Gorda, down 18.7%, and Austin, down 16.7%. The coexistence of a rising national average and diverging city trends is the defining feature of this housing cycle. National averages therefore hide wide local gaps, and the cities that fell furthest are the ones where affordability is now improving fastest.
Calculated Risk cites Altos data showing that U.S. single-family home inventory has returned to 2019 levels, with the author arguing that inventory is the most telling indicator. Normalizing inventory means the balance of negotiating power between buyers and sellers is shifting, making it one of the most heavily weighted indicators for judging where the housing market is headed. With supply back to pre-pandemic norms, buyers gain more room to negotiate, and sellers can no longer count on bidding wars to set the price.
Calculated Risk carries an update from housing economist Tom Lawler: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased their agency MBS holdings in September, while interest-rate risk measures remain elevated. Changes in the two agencies' holdings affect the secondary mortgage market and offer a useful reference for judging the direction of mortgage rates, which in turn shapes borrowing costs for homebuyers nationwide.
The National Multifamily Housing Council's October survey shows apartment market conditions weakened over the past three months, with high interest rates making financing harder to obtain. Measures of market tightness and sales volume came under pressure together, reflecting a continued cooling of the U.S. rental housing market in a high-rate environment, and the softening across sub-indicators points to a broad rather than narrow-based slowdown.
Housing economist Tom Lawler tracks the mortgage-backed securities market: yields on current-coupon MBS edged down after hitting a year high on October 5, but still stood at 6.27%, well above levels earlier this year. MBS yields are a leading indicator for the direction of mortgage rates and directly affect homebuyers' financing costs. The pullback from the October 5 peak offers only modest relief, since yields remain far above where they started the year, keeping mortgage rates elevated for buyers.
The architecture billings index has been in contraction for 47 of the past 48 months, and the decline deepened further in September. The index is a leading indicator for new commercial real estate investment, including multifamily housing; prolonged weakness at the design stage suggests little improvement ahead in commercial development activity, as fewer projects move from design into construction in the near term.
Calculated Risk's roundup of weekly high-frequency data notes that the recent rise in mortgage rates is now showing up: inventory is climbing while demand falls, putting pressure on home prices. Weekly data captures turning points earlier than monthly reports, making it a common early warning for tracking the depth of the U.S. housing market's cooling. Rising supply against falling demand is the combination that most often precedes price cuts, so the weekly series bears close watching in the weeks ahead.
CBRE publishes its Beijing real estate market report for the third quarter of 2026, tracking rents, vacancy rates and transaction performance across offices, retail, warehouse and logistics, and investment. The quarterly data is a benchmark reading for judging conditions in first-tier cities' commercial property, and can be read alongside Shanghai's report for the same quarter. The four sectors together give a full picture of the capital's commercial property market, from leasing demand to capital flows into investment deals.
U.S. Census Bureau data shows privately owned housing starts fell in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million units. Starts, permits and completions together describe the pace of supply, and with mortgage rates elevated, developers remain cautious about adding new supply, keeping the construction pipeline lean even where underlying demand for homes remains steady across most major markets.
Calculated Risk discusses the ratio of house prices to income, a core measure of housing affordability: it best captures whether home prices have drifted away from residents' purchasing power, but income data is published with a long lag and definitional problems persist. Understanding the indicator's limitations is essential to using it correctly to judge the housing market. Because income figures arrive months late, the ratio is better at describing where affordability has been than where it stands today, and it should be read with that lag in mind.
CBRE publishes its Shanghai real estate market report for the third quarter of 2026, covering changes in rents and vacancy across offices, business parks, retail, warehouse and logistics, and investment markets. Comparing Shanghai's report with Beijing's for the same quarter reveals differences in the pace of recovery across first-tier cities' commercial property. Each sector's rent and vacancy figures add a piece to the picture, and the differences between the two cities show that recovery in first-tier commercial property is not moving at one speed.
The second part of Calculated Risk's mid-October housing market review focuses on home prices, rents and mortgage rates. The first part covers inventory and sales, while the second looks at price signals: with rates running high, the extent of any softening in prices and the direction of rents will determine where the market goes next. Read together, the two parts cover the full chain from listings to prices, giving a single mid-month snapshot of a market adjusting to high borrowing costs.
The first part of Calculated Risk's mid-October housing market review covers inventory and sales: changes in homes for sale and the pace of transactions together determine the direction of pressure on prices. The two-part review is a regular feature tracking the U.S. housing market, with stable data definitions that suit time-series comparisons, letting readers track how supply and demand conditions evolve month by month.
Calculated Risk's high-frequency data roundup notes that the recent rebound in mortgage rates has affected supply and demand for existing homes; Mortgage Bankers Association data shows applications remain weak. Even small rate moves feed through to listings and application volumes, showing how sensitive the current housing market is to financing costs. When rates rise, would-be sellers hold back and buyers step aside at the same time, so even a modest move can quickly change the balance of the existing-home market.
CBRE publishes its China Office Tenant Survey 2026, themed on adaptive space: corporate tenants' demand for office space is shifting from 'floor area' to 'fit', with flexible, adjustable space becoming a key variable in location decisions. The annual survey is a window on structural change in office demand, and on how landlords must rethink what tenants are willing to pay for.
Knight Frank's Residence Report (2026/27) tracks the fast-evolving branded residences market: resort destinations are growing, non-hotel luxury operators are rising, and wellness is shifting from an amenity to infrastructure. For the high-end housing market, the annual report is a benchmark for observing how buyer demand is migrating, and where developers are placing their bets on the next generation of luxury homes.